Saturday 6 February 2016

Election questions

So after months of shadow boxing we're finally down to the actual business of electioneering. Within 24 hours of the election being called it has become apparent that it's the same old same old when it comes to campaigning.
The term "fiscal space" has entered the lexicon in the last week. Basically it's an estimate of the sum that might become available to the next government if it complies with stringent budget rules set out in Irish and EU laws. The amount
depends on the level of economic growth (if any) in Ireland and the outside world.
The various parties have different figures as to what that might be ranging from 10bn to 8bn. Based on this they are promising the sun moon and stars to win votes. However the Fiscal Advisory Council, which was set up to advise the government about exactly such issues is far more conservative. And as usual they are being ignored. Given the experience that we had in the last decade about blithely ignoring unwelcome advice you might think the political classes might go for the more conservative outlook and treat anything extra as a bonus but no..
Economic forecasts are notoriously difficult. All it takes is one unforeseen events a la 9/11 to put a dent in even the most prudent forecast. At any given time you can really only have any certainty for about a year in advance. Basically what the parties are doing is dressing a wishlist up as policies and wasting everyone's time arguing about it. Elections shouldn't be about who is going to build more roads or who's going to hand out more money in social welfare. It should be about the vision we have for the country. Unfortunately politics here is never about the big picture.

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