Paris Attacks

Like millions of others around the world I watched the grim events of Friday 13th November unfold with a growing sense of horror. I've seen 9/11, 7/7, Omagh and any number of terrible attacks in the Middle East but nothing has gotten to me quite like the attacks last Friday. I think it's because at the time of the other attacks I hadn't ever been in the places attacked (I've since visited London) Paris is different. I spent a fondly remembered summer working in Disneyland and on my days off would invariably go into Paris and wander its streets, having beers or coffees in the cafes and restaurants. I went to concerts in the Bataclan, and saw les Bleus play in Saint-Denis (they were World Champions at the time, which added lustre to the occasion) So watching these same places under attack struck a chord, more so than some places that were just pictures on a screen. After the shock comes the anger and the desire for retribution so I wasn't overly concerned about the residents of Raqqa on Sunday when the French struck back.

At a few days remove from it all we've had hours of discussion about ISIS/ISIL/IS/Daesh and the general situation in Syria and Iraq. It's gone along predictable lines with the usual suspects pretty much toeing the party line from "It's all the Americans fault" to "stop the refugees, they're all terrorists" As usual the truth is somewhere in between.
It's true to say that ISIS was facilitated by the instability in the region caused by the invasion of Iraq post 9/11. It's also true that their money comes from Wahhabis in Saudi Arabia and the arms that Western manufacturers sell to the Saudis find their way into ISIS hands. However it's equally obvious that the ISIS campaign is not some reaction to the perceived injustice from the West/Israel against the Palestinians and others. If it was they wouldn't be merrily butchering Shiites. In my opinion it's a power play by Sunni Muslims against the Shiites, who have generally held the upper hand historically. The religious rhetoric being used is a selling point. Down through history religion has always been used as a tool to recruit people by appealing to their need to be part of something bigger than themselves. In this case they are literally "holier than thou". People are blaming religion in general for all this. It's an easy drum to bang. I'm not religious in any way but surely it's the people interpreting the religion that's the problem, not the concept of religion itself. There are many passages in the Koran that don't exactly chime well with 21st century ideas, (Ditto the Bible). Those that use such passages to tar every Muslim with the same brush are just as narrow-minded as ISIS, if not as violent.

Depressingly, they hadn't even finished identifying the bodies in Paris before countries were cynically using the attacks to weasel out of commitments to take in refugees. I tweeted that you couldn't stop all refugees coming in just because a infinitesimal percentage might be terrorists. It was pointed out to me that ISIS have plenty of European citizens in situ to do their dirty work which is true and sort of shoots down the argument that stopping refugees will stop terrorism.

How do you solve the problem? ISIS will not be talked to, there's no way they are going to sit down with the infidels. Assad is just a less fundamentalist version, albeit less likely to engage in acts of international terrorism. Air strikes have been ongoing for quite some time and I can't see how they have hampered ISIS ability to conduct their bloody business. Also the civilian cost is rising. People talk about "boots on the ground" but even if there was a ground war that an international coalition won what would happen afterwards? The botched job in Iraq wouldn't fill you with confidence that a Syrian occupation would work out better. The best you could hope for is to reduce ISIS ability to wage war on the international community at large and stop them inflicting more misery on those Muslims not of their fundamentalist bent. The Kurds are doing quite well but theirs is more a campaign of protection than of ultimate victory.

The reservatios above notwithstanding, I can't really see any other way to neutralize ISIS other than to go into Syria and take back territory. At the moment there's a perception than they are an unstoppable force. This makes it easier for them to recruit. A few defeats in the field might make erstwhile jihadists think twice. It's easy to sit here far removed from conflict and talk about sending troops in. An intervention on the scale needed is likely to be long and bloody and me or mine wouldn't be doing the bleeding.

I'm not one to bang on about a clash of civilizations and World War 3. but ISIS are a serious threat to both the Muslim and wider world. No country in the world can claim to have clean hands throughout history but ISIS are a particulary savage bunch. People are quick to criticize the role of Western powers in the Middle East and the world at large but for all their misdeeds they don't sell women into slavery, they don't slaughter entire towns, they don't preach intolerance and global Armageddon. No one with any pretensions of liberté, égalité and fraternité could possibly not stand with the rest of the world. Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Atheist or Agnostic against the medieval extremism and hate fuelled philosophy of Islamic State.