Thursday 25 February 2016

More election questions

What a dull campaign it's been. I was watching the excellent Apres Match Election 1982 special last night and while the tone was satirical it was obvious even through the mockery that election campaigns had a bit more oomph back then. I was only 10 by the time the November 1982 election rolled around. the third election in 18 months, which in my highly political household was like 3 world cups rolled into one. My forefathers wore shirts of the deepest blue and CJ Haughey was Satan. To my wide eyed uncynical mind this was absorbing stuff and stands out even now more than the half dozen or so general elections since.

It's a curious thing that while the world has never been more connected our elected representatives have rarely been at a further remove than they have been during this campaign. This is the age of the leaflet drop and the TV debate the social media spin and the carefully coiffured posters. Obviously posters have long been a feature but never so many. Perhaps it's because there are more candidates than ever before, 16 or so in my constituency. It's telling though, that we've only had one at the door, and even then the "minder" did all the talking (such as it was) I don't expect every single candidate to call but 1 out of 16 is a poor return. The days of the local TD pressing the flesh outside mass is a sepia toned image of a byegone age. After all, who goes to mass anymore?

It's been a tired campaign and while officially it's been quite short, in reality campaigning has been going on for months. Maybe that's why the last debate was such a humdrum affair. The message has been repeated over and over "Stability over chaos" "Time for change" "Keep the recovery going" "The recovery is only for the rich" Just words at this stage. This election is all about who people aren't going to vote for. People have had very little positivity from the parties, "Don't vote for such n' such they'll do -insert really bad thing here-" rather than "Vote for us, we'll do this." This is the first election that I have seriously considered not voting. Inspiration has been short on the ground. The big parties have been predictable The only bright spot was Stephen Donnelly's performance in the 7 way debate but how likely are the newly minted Social Democrats to get enough seats to make a difference, this time around at least.

The result of this election is likely to be the hungest of hung Dails The indications are that the only combination that will break the 80 seat mark will be Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. A right-wing government, The Right To Change group have too many moving parts to be a serious government, admirable as some of their ideas are. It would be seismic either way. Irelands first truly left-wing government or an end to civil war politics. How ironic would it be if the most forgettable campaign of all begat the most memorable outcome.

Saturday 6 February 2016

Election questions

So after months of shadow boxing we're finally down to the actual business of electioneering. Within 24 hours of the election being called it has become apparent that it's the same old same old when it comes to campaigning.
The term "fiscal space" has entered the lexicon in the last week. Basically it's an estimate of the sum that might become available to the next government if it complies with stringent budget rules set out in Irish and EU laws. The amount
depends on the level of economic growth (if any) in Ireland and the outside world.
The various parties have different figures as to what that might be ranging from 10bn to 8bn. Based on this they are promising the sun moon and stars to win votes. However the Fiscal Advisory Council, which was set up to advise the government about exactly such issues is far more conservative. And as usual they are being ignored. Given the experience that we had in the last decade about blithely ignoring unwelcome advice you might think the political classes might go for the more conservative outlook and treat anything extra as a bonus but no..
Economic forecasts are notoriously difficult. All it takes is one unforeseen events a la 9/11 to put a dent in even the most prudent forecast. At any given time you can really only have any certainty for about a year in advance. Basically what the parties are doing is dressing a wishlist up as policies and wasting everyone's time arguing about it. Elections shouldn't be about who is going to build more roads or who's going to hand out more money in social welfare. It should be about the vision we have for the country. Unfortunately politics here is never about the big picture.