More election questions

What a dull campaign it's been. I was watching the excellent Apres Match Election 1982 special last night and while the tone was satirical it was obvious even through the mockery that election campaigns had a bit more oomph back then. I was only 10 by the time the November 1982 election rolled around. the third election in 18 months, which in my highly political household was like 3 world cups rolled into one. My forefathers wore shirts of the deepest blue and CJ Haughey was Satan. To my wide eyed uncynical mind this was absorbing stuff and stands out even now more than the half dozen or so general elections since.

It's a curious thing that while the world has never been more connected our elected representatives have rarely been at a further remove than they have been during this campaign. This is the age of the leaflet drop and the TV debate the social media spin and the carefully coiffured posters. Obviously posters have long been a feature but never so many. Perhaps it's because there are more candidates than ever before, 16 or so in my constituency. It's telling though, that we've only had one at the door, and even then the "minder" did all the talking (such as it was) I don't expect every single candidate to call but 1 out of 16 is a poor return. The days of the local TD pressing the flesh outside mass is a sepia toned image of a byegone age. After all, who goes to mass anymore?

It's been a tired campaign and while officially it's been quite short, in reality campaigning has been going on for months. Maybe that's why the last debate was such a humdrum affair. The message has been repeated over and over "Stability over chaos" "Time for change" "Keep the recovery going" "The recovery is only for the rich" Just words at this stage. This election is all about who people aren't going to vote for. People have had very little positivity from the parties, "Don't vote for such n' such they'll do -insert really bad thing here-" rather than "Vote for us, we'll do this." This is the first election that I have seriously considered not voting. Inspiration has been short on the ground. The big parties have been predictable The only bright spot was Stephen Donnelly's performance in the 7 way debate but how likely are the newly minted Social Democrats to get enough seats to make a difference, this time around at least.

The result of this election is likely to be the hungest of hung Dails The indications are that the only combination that will break the 80 seat mark will be Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. A right-wing government, The Right To Change group have too many moving parts to be a serious government, admirable as some of their ideas are. It would be seismic either way. Irelands first truly left-wing government or an end to civil war politics. How ironic would it be if the most forgettable campaign of all begat the most memorable outcome.

Election questions

So after months of shadow boxing we're finally down to the actual business of electioneering. Within 24 hours of the election being called it has become apparent that it's the same old same old when it comes to campaigning.
The term "fiscal space" has entered the lexicon in the last week. Basically it's an estimate of the sum that might become available to the next government if it complies with stringent budget rules set out in Irish and EU laws. The amount
depends on the level of economic growth (if any) in Ireland and the outside world.
The various parties have different figures as to what that might be ranging from 10bn to 8bn. Based on this they are promising the sun moon and stars to win votes. However the Fiscal Advisory Council, which was set up to advise the government about exactly such issues is far more conservative. And as usual they are being ignored. Given the experience that we had in the last decade about blithely ignoring unwelcome advice you might think the political classes might go for the more conservative outlook and treat anything extra as a bonus but no..
Economic forecasts are notoriously difficult. All it takes is one unforeseen events a la 9/11 to put a dent in even the most prudent forecast. At any given time you can really only have any certainty for about a year in advance. Basically what the parties are doing is dressing a wishlist up as policies and wasting everyone's time arguing about it. Elections shouldn't be about who is going to build more roads or who's going to hand out more money in social welfare. It should be about the vision we have for the country. Unfortunately politics here is never about the big picture.

Paris Attacks

Like millions of others around the world I watched the grim events of Friday 13th November unfold with a growing sense of horror. I've seen 9/11, 7/7, Omagh and any number of terrible attacks in the Middle East but nothing has gotten to me quite like the attacks last Friday. I think it's because at the time of the other attacks I hadn't ever been in the places attacked (I've since visited London) Paris is different. I spent a fondly remembered summer working in Disneyland and on my days off would invariably go into Paris and wander its streets, having beers or coffees in the cafes and restaurants. I went to concerts in the Bataclan, and saw les Bleus play in Saint-Denis (they were World Champions at the time, which added lustre to the occasion) So watching these same places under attack struck a chord, more so than some places that were just pictures on a screen. After the shock comes the anger and the desire for retribution so I wasn't overly concerned about the residents of Raqqa on Sunday when the French struck back.

At a few days remove from it all we've had hours of discussion about ISIS/ISIL/IS/Daesh and the general situation in Syria and Iraq. It's gone along predictable lines with the usual suspects pretty much toeing the party line from "It's all the Americans fault" to "stop the refugees, they're all terrorists" As usual the truth is somewhere in between.
It's true to say that ISIS was facilitated by the instability in the region caused by the invasion of Iraq post 9/11. It's also true that their money comes from Wahhabis in Saudi Arabia and the arms that Western manufacturers sell to the Saudis find their way into ISIS hands. However it's equally obvious that the ISIS campaign is not some reaction to the perceived injustice from the West/Israel against the Palestinians and others. If it was they wouldn't be merrily butchering Shiites. In my opinion it's a power play by Sunni Muslims against the Shiites, who have generally held the upper hand historically. The religious rhetoric being used is a selling point. Down through history religion has always been used as a tool to recruit people by appealing to their need to be part of something bigger than themselves. In this case they are literally "holier than thou". People are blaming religion in general for all this. It's an easy drum to bang. I'm not religious in any way but surely it's the people interpreting the religion that's the problem, not the concept of religion itself. There are many passages in the Koran that don't exactly chime well with 21st century ideas, (Ditto the Bible). Those that use such passages to tar every Muslim with the same brush are just as narrow-minded as ISIS, if not as violent.

Depressingly, they hadn't even finished identifying the bodies in Paris before countries were cynically using the attacks to weasel out of commitments to take in refugees. I tweeted that you couldn't stop all refugees coming in just because a infinitesimal percentage might be terrorists. It was pointed out to me that ISIS have plenty of European citizens in situ to do their dirty work which is true and sort of shoots down the argument that stopping refugees will stop terrorism.

How do you solve the problem? ISIS will not be talked to, there's no way they are going to sit down with the infidels. Assad is just a less fundamentalist version, albeit less likely to engage in acts of international terrorism. Air strikes have been ongoing for quite some time and I can't see how they have hampered ISIS ability to conduct their bloody business. Also the civilian cost is rising. People talk about "boots on the ground" but even if there was a ground war that an international coalition won what would happen afterwards? The botched job in Iraq wouldn't fill you with confidence that a Syrian occupation would work out better. The best you could hope for is to reduce ISIS ability to wage war on the international community at large and stop them inflicting more misery on those Muslims not of their fundamentalist bent. The Kurds are doing quite well but theirs is more a campaign of protection than of ultimate victory.

The reservatios above notwithstanding, I can't really see any other way to neutralize ISIS other than to go into Syria and take back territory. At the moment there's a perception than they are an unstoppable force. This makes it easier for them to recruit. A few defeats in the field might make erstwhile jihadists think twice. It's easy to sit here far removed from conflict and talk about sending troops in. An intervention on the scale needed is likely to be long and bloody and me or mine wouldn't be doing the bleeding.

I'm not one to bang on about a clash of civilizations and World War 3. but ISIS are a serious threat to both the Muslim and wider world. No country in the world can claim to have clean hands throughout history but ISIS are a particulary savage bunch. People are quick to criticize the role of Western powers in the Middle East and the world at large but for all their misdeeds they don't sell women into slavery, they don't slaughter entire towns, they don't preach intolerance and global Armageddon. No one with any pretensions of liberté, égalité and fraternité could possibly not stand with the rest of the world. Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Atheist or Agnostic against the medieval extremism and hate fuelled philosophy of Islamic State.

Travellers

On Saturday last 10 travellers died in a fire at a halting site in Dublin. 5 of them were children. There was all the usual reactions from the public at large. There was genuine shock and sadness. However it seems to have gone away rather quickly. A lot has happened since I suppose, both serious, and relatively trivial but even in this world of constant breaking news the Carrickmines fire seems to have slipped from the public consciousness with indecent haste. Think about it TEN people. This sort of multiple fatality doesn't happen too often but after the initial burst of shock its almost like it didn't happen. Twitter, that amplifier of the most mundane is silent with #carrickmines conspicuous by it's absence.

Why? It's a hard truth but it's because they were travellers. We have a difficult relationship with travellers. Lots of lip service but behind it all we don't like them. I'm as guilty as anyone. I went to school in Rathkeale which is traveller central at certain times of the year. I would be at best ambivalent towards travellers and certainly would have been generally dismissive of any I've encountered.

There's no doubt that some travellers are not model citizens. Growing up I saw enough evidence of that. However there are less than desirable people everywhere not just in the travelling community so why tar all travellers with the same brush. I think because it's easy. There's an awful lot less censure of derogatory statements about travellers than about blacks (for example) Not serving an Asian will see you up on discrimination charges a hell of a lot more quickly than not serving a traveller. There's a casual indifference towards them that permeates the "settled" society.

Sometimes they don't help their own cause though. Traveller attitudes towards women, arranged marriages and so on are out of step with 21st century thinking. easy then, to dismiss them as lazy dirty ne'er do wells. The key to everything as it is so often is education. Travellers don't go to school very much, particularly post primary. That has to change. The state has a duty to give everyone an education. It's not good enough to argue that because travellers move around its hard to enrol them in school. Start small, bring the teachers to them. They (in many cases) don't pay tax it's argued Neither do unemployed people Are you going to deny their kids education as well.

It all comes down to attitude though. Always the last thing to change. It's telling that what's making the news tonight is people objecting to temporary accommodation for those affected by the fire. Even dead kids aren't enough to combat some people's NIMBYism We all jumped up and down and offered to take in refugee families. Didn't hear anyone on Liveline offering space to the bereaved of Carrickmines.

Refugees

Listening to people on the radio offering accommodation to refugees brought it home to me what a disconnect there is between the citizenry and the politicians we elect to represent us. While our government hums and haws over increasing the derisory commitment they have made with a slightly less derisory one, The general population is prepared to open their homes if need be. Now, the assortment of cranks and loons that "talk to Joe" on a daily basis might not be everyone's idea of a representative sample of the population as a whole but in this I think most people would be of like mind.

However the question of what happens to the refugees when they arrive here needs to be addressed. Whoever comes here will be staying for a while. After the horrors of their homeland and the hazardous trip across Europe Mosney or wherever will seem like paradise but you can't expect people to sit and moulder on €20 a week for years. These are people who had lives, careers skills. Why not let them contribute to Irish society. I cannot understand the thinking behind the direct provision system. It just gives ammunition to those who would prefer the borders to be shut.
Europe's reaction to the crisis has been pretty poor. Arguments about numbers while bodies are floating around the Mediterranean doesn't reflect well on the "European project" If the EU wants to be taken seriously as a force in the world it needs to step up, both in the short term by trying to alleviate the situation for those trying to escape the wars in their homeland and in the longer term by doing something constructive to bring an end to the conflicts.
The only way the refugee crisis will end is if the situation in places like Syria improves. I think they need boots on the ground in there.and not just soundbites about "helping them help themselves" from the type of people who then complain about the size of foreign aid budgets in their own countries. ISIS will not negotiate, will not be sanctioned into submission I'm by no means a "Yeeha!! let's smoke 'em out" sort of person but standing idly by while ISIS butcher their way across the Middle East is 1939 and appeasement all over again. A "just" war may be an oxymoron in some eyes but there needs to be some sort of intervention.

Back to our numbers game. 600 refugees is a joke A proportionate response should be in the thousands. Germany is taking 1 million, no questions asked. In reality, we shouldn't even be counting, just acting.

Hurling championship

After another Sunday of hurling we're still waiting for the championship to deliver. Cork, and to a lesser extent Dublin offered little in the way in resistance to Galway and Waterford.

After the Tipp Limerick match a friend of mine opined that they should just skip to the All Ireland semi final with the 4 provincial finalists. A limp qualifier series later and that's exactly what we've got. 

There are 9 major hurling counties (Offaly, unfortunately can no longer make that claim) and this season 4 of them have gone backwards. Corks lack of underage development has caught up with them. Dublin are growing old together with little in the way of fresh blood. Wexford were probably not as good as they thought after last year and Limerick could not bring the intensity that masked their shortcomings up front for a third championship season. 

Results wise, Clare improved on last year but still haven't hit the heights of 2013. The temptation is to look on that success as the aberration rather than the aftermath, or to blame Davy.

The most startling improvement this year has obviously been Waterford. Derek McGrath has found a system which marries discipline and organisation with the dash of individual panache that has characterized Deise teams over the years

Tipp have finally won something under O'Shea which can only be a positive but they are operating at such a high standard that small improvements are all that's possible.

Galway have been their usual mixture of good and ordinary. This year they have managed to be good when they've needed to be. They managed to survive the first day against Dublir, which was their worst performance and kept it respectable in the Leinster final

Kilkenny as always have got to the business end without breaking a sweat. As inevitable as death and taxes the machine just keeps on rolling. They haven't been tested yet, but it's never stopped them in the past.

It looks like a Kilkenny Tipp final However Waterford will ask questions of the Cats who won't be familiar playing against the system the Deise employ. Galway usually turn up for a semi final at Croker ( just ask one B Cody) and, as young Johnny Glynn so eloquently reminded us all, are about more than just Joe these days so Tipp s marquee forwards Callinan and Bubbles will need to show up as well.

Hurling badly needs two good semis. A repeat of the Kilkenny Limerick match last year would do nicely, but without the monsoon. I would argue that it probably needs a Galway Waterford final for novelty but let's face it, who would complain if the favourites prevail and we got a repeat of last year's drawn match.

2018 World Cup Qualifying

The draw for the qualifiers for the 2018 world cup took place today and seems to have led to a fair bit of optimism amongst Irish soccer fans.  The prevailing opinion seems to be that it could have bee n a lot worse. It could have been, but it still doesn't mean we're going to come within an asses roar of finishing in the top two. What everyone seems to forget is that we're a deeply untalented team with scant creativity either on the pitch or in the management. When was the last time anyone actually enjoyed an Irish game? We've drawn Moldova, Georgia, Serbia, Austria and Wales which on paper seems reasonable but Austria and Serbia have beaten us recently and we scraped a win against Georgia. I honestly don't know what Moldova are like, but given they were bottom seeds I presume they are pants. Which leaves Wales, who inspired mainly by Gareth Bale but with no small input from the likes of Aaron Ramsey are experiencing their best run in years. We couldn't manage Scotland, so I'm not confident. 

I don't like writing this, I'm old enough to remember Stuttgart and Genoa, Giants Stadium and Ibaraki At the moment unfortunately those glorious sites of memorable moments might as well be on Earth 2, so far removed are we from them.

Despite it all though I'll still be bitterly disappointed when we fail, It's the hope that kills you after all